Released yesterday, the Atlanta Federal Reserve GDPNow Forecast estimates real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2022 is 0.0%, a decline from 0.60% on February 25th. After recent data releases from the US Census Bureau and the Institute for Supply Management, an increase in the Nowcast in first quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 1.6 percent to 2.3 percent was more than offset by a decline in the Nowcast of the contribution of net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth from -0.10 percentage points to -0.94 percentage points. Unfortunately, this is just the start of potentially worsening news as the global economy is in disarray due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, inflation projected to explode to new all-time highs, and the Federal Reserve potentially trapped with slowing growth but continued inflation.
Source: WSJ