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Elevator Up
U.S. Interest Rates

September Rate Hike Real Possibility

For the first time in years, markets are seriously pricing in the possibility of an interest rate *hike* — not a cut — at the Fed's upcoming September 15–16 meeting. The shift began in late August, when new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh delivered his first Jackson Hole speech and made clear that fighting inflation is his top priority. He noted that inflation has run above the Fed's 2% target for more than five years and said the central bank must be confident inflation is falling "clearly and at sufficient speed" — otherwise, "we have work to do."
World's Best Boss
U.S. Treasury

Big Boss Bessent

Rising long-term U.S. Treasury yields (with the 30-year hitting multi-year highs around 5.3%+) amid concerns over the U.S. fiscal outlook, heavy debt issuance (including AI-related financing), and the national debt approaching $40 trillion, prompting Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to announce plans to at least double long-term bond buybacks in a move reminiscent of the Fed’s 2011 “Operation Twist.”
Cauldron
U.S. Treasury Bonds

Double, Double, Toil & Trouble?

The Treasury Department on Wednesday said it will more than double the size of its government debt repurchases, sending yields sharply lower at a time of substantial market stress. With fixed income markets under pressure and yields surging to levels not seen in nearly 20 years, the announcement targets the sensitive longer-duration part of the Treasury market. Under the accelerated buyback, Treasury, led by Secretary Scott Bessent, will target the 10- to 20- year and 20- to 30-year portion of the market, which has seen a buyers’ strike since late June.
Flatlands
U.S. Inflation

CPI Flat, Remains Above 3%

A key inflation reading Wednesday showed prices moderating across a range of goods and services, possibly taking the urgency out of an imminent interest rate hike. The consumer price index, part of the Federal Reserve’s inflation dashboard, showed a seasonally adjusted increase of 0.1% during July, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Excluding food and energy, the so-called core CPI rose 0.2%.
Level
U.S. Federal Reserve

Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged

The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged Wednesday, but the central bank’s latest policy decision could still have significant implications for household budgets. Higher energy prices stemming from the Iran conflict may have lasting inflationary effects, which likely contributed to the Fed’s decision to leave rates on hold as policymakers wait to gauge the economic fallout, economists said. The dynamic could also lead policymakers to consider raising rates at their September meeting, even as President Donald Trump has said that the U.S. “should have the lowest interest rate in the world.”
Cool Night Sky
U.S. Inflation

Inflation Cools, Still Elevated

U.S. consumer inflation slowed more than expected in June as energy prices retreated, but the moderation was insufficient to convince financial markets to take an interest rate increase from the Federal Reserve this year off the table against the backdrop of renewed conflict in the Middle East. The report from the Labor Department on Tuesday, which also showed underlying inflation subsiding last month, gave officials ‌at the U.S. central bank some breathing room when they meet later this month, economists said. They, however, cautioned that June's Consumer Price Index data had been overtaken by the recent escalation in hostilities between the U.S. and Iran.
Oil Barrel
Global Oil Complex

Oil Drops to Pre-Iran Levels

Oil prices fell about 4% Wednesday as tankers continued to transit the Strait of Hormuz, raising hopes that the worst of the Middle East supply disruption is over. West Texas Intermediate futures hit a session low of $69.63 per barrel, the first time the contract has fallen below $70 since March 2. WTI was last trading down 4% at $70.22 per barrel. Brent crude futures, the international benchmark, fell 4.2% to $73.83 per barrel, notching its lowest level since before the U.S. and Israel launched airstrikes against Iran on Feb. 28.
Neon sign change
U.S. Federal Reserve

Warsh Awash In Changes

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh opened a new era of U.S. monetary policy on Wednesday, with officials agreeing to leave interest rates unchanged despite inflation stuck well above their target but also launching an ambitious review that could reshape how the central bank makes decisions and communicates with the public. Warsh, who took over as Fed chief last month, made an immediate imprint in organizing a unanimous consensus around a stripped-down policy statement that jettisoned any forward guidance on what actions ‌the central bank might take in the near term, although new quarterly projections, eschewed by Warsh himself, showed nine of 19 policymakers now anticipate a rate hike by the end of 2026.
Marching Band
U.S. Inflation

Inflation Continues March Higher

Inflation accelerated in May as rising energy costs contributed to pain for consumers, though underlying pressures were less intense. The consumer price index, a broad gauge of goods and services costs across the U.S. economy, rose at a seasonally adjusted 0.5% for the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 4.2%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday.
Sun Rising
U.S. Inflation

Core Inflation Rises

Inflation continued to hit consumer wallets in April, likely keeping the Federal Reserve on the sidelines until the current wave subsides, fresh pricing data released Thursday showed. The personal consumption expenditures price index increased a seasonally adjusted 0.4% for the month, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 3.8%, the Commerce Department reported. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for respective readings of 0.5% and 3.8%. Excluding food and energy, core prices rose 0.2% for the month and 3.3% for the year, against estimates of 0.3% and 3.3%.
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