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Scissors
U.S. Federal Reserve

Fed Returns to Easing

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday approved a widely anticipated rate cut and signaled that two more are on the way before the end of the year as concerns intensified over the U.S. labor market. In an 11-to-1 vote signaling less dissent than Wall Street had anticipated, the Federal Open Market Committee lowered its benchmark overnight lending rate by a quarter percentage point. The decision puts the overnight funds rate in a range between 4.00%-4.25%. Newly-installed Governor Stephen Miran was the only policymaker voting against the quarter-point move, instead advocating for a half-point cut.
Cliff
U.S. Inflation

C.P. High?

Prices consumers pay for a variety of goods and services moved higher than expected in August while jobless claims accelerated, providing challenging economic signals for the Federal Reserve before its meeting next week. The consumer price index posted a seasonally adjusted 0.4% increase for the month, the biggest gain since January, putting the annual inflation rate at 2.9%, up 0.2 percentage point from the prior month and the highest reading since January. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for respective readings of 0.3% and 2.9%.
Mud
U.S. Employment

Stuck in the Mud

U.S. private sector hiring rose less than expected in August, data released Thursday shows, offering the latest indication of trouble in the labor market. Private payrolls increased by just 54,000 in August, according to data from processing firm ADP published Thursday morning. That’s below the consensus forecast of 75,000 from economists polled by Dow Jones and marks a significant slowdown from the revised gain of 106,000 seen in the prior month. “The year started with strong job growth, but that momentum has been whipsawed by uncertainty,” said Nela Richardson, ADP’s chief economist, in a press release. Richardson pointed to rising worries from consumers, labor shortages and disruptions tied to artificial intelligence as potential drivers of this decrease in growth.
Hot air balloon
U.S. Inflation

Up, Up, and To Stay?

Inflation edged higher in July, according to the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, indicating that President Donald Trump’s tariffs are working their way through the U.S. economy. The personal consumption expenditures price index showed that core inflation, which excludes food and energy costs, ran at a 2.9% seasonally adjusted annual rate, according to a Commerce Department report Friday. That was up 0.1 percentage point from the June level and the highest annual rate since February, though in line with the Dow Jones consensus forecast.
Hot air balloon
U.S. Federal Reserve

Inflation > Employment

Federal Reserve officials worried at their July meeting about the state of the labor market and inflation, though most agreed that it was too soon to lower interest rates, minutes released Wednesday showed. The meeting summary depicted a divergence of opinion among the central bankers, whose vote to hold their key rate steady came despite objections from two Fed governors who argued in favor of cutting. Policymakers noted rising threats to the economy that would warrant monitoring, though they largely agreed that their current stance was the appropriate way to go.
Freezer
U.S. Inflation

CPI Misses to Downside

A widely followed measure of inflation accelerated slightly less than expected in July on an annual basis as President Donald Trump’s tariffs showed mostly modest impacts and investors grew more confidence about interest rate cuts ahead. The consumer price index increased a seasonally adjusted 0.2% for the month and 2.7% on a 12-month basis, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday. That compared with the respective Dow Jones estimates for 0.2% and 2.8%. Excluding food and energy, the core CPI increased 0.3% for the month and 3.1% from a year ago, compared with the forecasts for 0.3% and 3%. Federal Reserve officials generally consider core inflation to be a better reading for longer-term trends. The monthly core rate was the biggest increase since January while the annual rate was the highest since February.
Building
U.S. Federal Reserve

Temporary Fed Governor?

Donald Trump’s advisers are encouraging him to nominate a temporary Federal Reserve governor to fill the soon-to-be vacant seat on the central bank’s board, according to people familiar with the discussions. Naming a governor to serve out the term for the seat opening soon — set to expire in January 2026 — would give Trump additional time to interview candidates to serve as chair when Jerome Powell’s tenure leading the central bank ends in May of next year, the people said. Fed Governor Adriana Kugler announced last week that she plans to vacate her role on Aug. 8.
SpongeBob
U.S. Economy

U.S. GDP Surprises to Upside

The U.S. economy grew at a much stronger-than-expected pace in the second quarter, powered by a turnaround in the trade balance and renewed consumer strength, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday. Gross domestic product, a sum of goods and services activity across the sprawling U.S. economy, jumped 3% for the April through June period, according to figures adjusted for seasonality and inflation. That topped the Dow Jones estimate for 2.3% and helped reverse a decline of 0.5% for the first quarter that came largely due to a huge drop in imports, which subtract from the total, as well as weak consumer spending amid tariff concerns.
Push
U.S. Federal Reserve

Powell Push?

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Wednesday that the Trump administration was not in a rush to nominate a new Federal Reserve Chair to replace Jerome Powell. "We are getting the process underway. Obviously it's going to be President Trump's decision, and we're not in a rush," Bessent told Bloomberg TV in an interview. Powell's term as chair ends in May 2026, although he is due to stay on as a Fed governor through January 2028.
Sunrise
U.S. Inflation

June CPI Rises, As Expected

U.S. consumer prices increased by the most in five months in June amid higher costs for some goods, suggesting tariffs were starting to have an impact on inflation and potentially keeping the Federal Reserve on the sidelines until September. Softening demand as consumers hunker down, however, is limiting price increases for services like airline fares and hotel and motel rooms, keeping underlying inflation muted for now. That trend, if sustained, could ease concerns of a broad-based rise in price pressures from tariffs.
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